Where's the Thai Smile Now?

Where’s the Thai Smile Now?

(I thought at first that this Blog post may have been overtaken by today’s events in Thailand, but it hasn’t.) When I flew out of Phuket on May 6, I was not looking out of the porthole in expectation of seeing a man in a red shirt catapulting a homemade rocket at an Airbus in take-off mode. Phuket was peaceful enough.

But I did have a lump in my throat. Would there be a Thailand to come back to? That question remains.

When the leaders of the protagonists of the protracted clash between the Red Shirts and the Thai government met for their live TV debates, the famous Thai smile was in evidence. No longer. Recent images portray serious, determined, resigned and anxious faces. The men to whom they belong knew there would be more pools of Thai blood on the streets of Bangkok. And they were right.

Though famous for their smiles, the Thais have always been a nation of fighters. Ask the Burmese, ask the Lao, ask any of their neighbours whose borders they crossed in the name of conquest. All will confirm how determinedly Thais fight.

As a result of past military successes, the country’s north and north-eastern regions are largely populated by ancestors of people who were forced out of their own countries to become slaves of the Thais. In the region called Isan, the now nationalised ex-slaves still speak a Lao dialect, and they are physically different to those who consider themselves to be the ‘real’, ethnic Thais. And the ethnic Thais never let them forget what they regard as ‘shortcomings’.

When the northerners descended on Bangkok the majority of the populace regarded them as aliens. The two groups had no common ground. But after two months of mingling under very difficult circumstances, many of the poor of Bangkok, who number in the millions, realised that they and the northerners might have more common ground than they thought.
This common ground may yet give birth to a new political movement.

From a humanistic point of view my sympathies are with the Red Shirts. I’m not talking about their ill-advised leaders who told them to splash fresh blood around, nor about the cynical, super-rich, would-be dictator who bribed them and financed a cadre of ‘guns-for-hire’ to go to Bangkok and cause mayhem. My sympathy is with the ordinary protestors, those who have many genuine grievances.

Thai governments ignore the plight of northerners, who are neglected, abused, exploited and, as a result of grossly unequal distribution of wealth, abjectly poverty-stricken. And sadly enough, the vast majority of ethnic Thais, especially those belonging to the burgeoning middle-class, plus the elitists (supported by the Yellow Shirts), don’t give a damn.

I believe this attitude ensures that Thailand must reap the rotten harvest that the ethnic Thais have sown, now and in the future.

The Thai military leadership is a reflection of an elitist establishment. The army has more generals and ex-generals cum politicians than it knows what to do with. They know, above all, where their bread is buttered and, therefore, it was not unexpected that at some stage Thai soldiers would be ordered to start killing the un-influential aliens from the north. Neither would it surprise me that when the military seemed hesitant about attacking its own citizens, a power struggle was being played out; a price was being demanded. Though we might never know what or how much it was, or if the amount has now been paid, it has at least been agreed.

The worst aspect of all this is that the very real grievances of Thailand’s poor, and in spite of the recent confrontation, will not be on the agenda of the Thai establishment - elected or otherwise - now or in the foreseeable future. This failure to accept responsibility for the downtrodden, or to fix any of Thailand’s chronic social and development problems is going to lead to much more trouble.

I expect the current crises to be repeated, especially as millions of Bangkok’s poor, many of whom are from the north, become more aware through better education, the internet and social networking. As and when this happens, the Thai establishment will be confronted by people nursing immense anger. The thing to watch out for is when they find proper and worthy leaders.

At the next election the Reds will vote for a government that is sympathetic to the cause of Thaksin Shinawatra. And they will win, which is why the army, backed by the Yellow Shirts and the elite, may not allow it.

The other massive problem is that most ordinary ethnic Thais will be less than enthralled by the prospect of being governed by a government sympathetic to the northern Reds, and especially one that harbours a desire to reinstate northern born Mr Shinawatra as de-facto leader. Should that happen, protest and violence instigated by the Yellow Shirt movement would begin immediately.

(If the Red Shirts had seized power and tried to restore the fortunes of Mr Shinawatra, Thailand would now be on a steeply descending road to hell.)

Thailand’s future looks bleak. Unless a Thai government genuinely commits itself to improving the lot of Thailand’s poverty-stricken majority and, at the same time placating the middle class and the power mongers of the elite, there will be more of the violence we have just witnessed to follow. In fact what we have witnessed will seem like a girl guide’s picnic.

To me, Thailand as a nation is on course to fail. Unless Thailand cleverly changes course, and I don’t think it can, the lovely, welcoming Thai smile from a people ‘we’ love will fade away. It will become history, even mythology, based on nostalgic stories recounted by ancient travellers. And the lump in my throat will become a boulder.